Sunday, 22 October 2006

NFL Week 7 Recap

A wild, wacky day of NFL action. Let's go right to it.

Chiefs 30, Chargers 27 - A doubly bad day for the Chargers... first they lose, and now they found out that Shawne Merriman will be suspended for 4 games. Although on the bright side, LaDainian Tomlinson continued his great passing... by my count, he's not 6/9 with 5 TD passes in his career. Meanwhile, Larry Johnson... he good.

Texans 27, Jaguars 7 - Just when I think I have things kinda figured out, this happens. The Texans stomp the Jaguars. Early in the year the Jags D was hailed as one of the tops in the NFL... and David Carr was great against it, Wali Lundy averaged nearly 5 yards a carry, and the Texans scored 27 points. I can't figure the NFL out.

Bengals 17, Panthers 14 - Two really good teams playing in a tight ballgame. Not really much more to say about it. Another big day for Steve Smith... this guy is just ridiculous.

Patriots 28, Bills 6 - Yeah, the Patriots are real good again. Brady is looking more comfortable every week... Ben Watson was solid at TE, Doug Gabriel continues to be their best WR, and the rookie Chad Jackson had a 35 yard TD grab. With that rapidly improving passing game, the two-headed monster at RB, and Bill Belichek game planning defensively, these guys are definitely going to be a threat in January once again.

Falcons 41, Steelers 38 OT - Just a great game here. Back and forth all day, big play after big play, and Michael Vick even making plays with his arm. One little thing that irritated me about this game, and about announcers in general... with the score 38-38, the Falcons ran a play that was stopped for not that many yards. The announcers reaction was something like this, "You can run that play successfully against a lot of teams, but not against a defense like the Steelers." Really? A great defense that gave up 38 points (at that point in the game)? Not against a defense that allowed Michael Vick (!) to tear them up in the passing game, or allowed Jerrious Norwood to get 8 yards per carry? Yeah, Steelers defense was awesome today. I hate announcers.

Bucs 23, Eagles 21 - Was that the best kick ever? I mean, when Elam kicked his, that wasn't to win the game, if I recall. 62 yarder, outdoors, to win the game. Unbelievable.

One more pet peeve, and this goes for everyone's logic and thinking skills. That was NOT the 2nd longest kick in NFL history, as I heard on lots of the NFL shows after the game. Two players made kicks that were 63 yards, which makes Bryant's the 3rd longest kick in history. Now, looking up the story, the AP does have it right, but all the TV shows I heard them say it was the 2nd longest kick in history, which is wrong.

But regardless, incredible, incredible kick.

Jets 31, Lions 24 - If I recall, Leon Washington mostly split carries at Florida St. with Lorenzo Booker... well, he's sure playing well as the starter for New York, with 129 yards and 2 TD on the day. Don't look now, but the Jets are 4-3 and have a date with the Browns next week.

Packers 34, Dolphins 24 - Last year, I thought the Dolphins were one of the better coached teams in the NFL. This year, not so much. How else do you explain Joey Harrington throwing 62 passes, and Ronnie Brown only getting 15 carries. 62 PASSES!! Have the Dolphins lost their mind? I mean, if you have a guy like Peyton Manning, I can understand throwing a lot of passes, even though 62 is way too many. But Joey Harrington? Throwing 62 passes in a game? Is this some kind of bizarro world?!?

Broncos 17, Browns 7 - Jake Plummer sucks a lot, the Broncos defense is really good, the Broncos running game is really good. Wash, rinse, repeat.

Vikings 31, Seahawks 13 - Dear Shaun, We need you back. I need you back. We're not the same without you. I mean, just between you and me, Maurice Morris isn't very good. Like at all. With Matt in there, we could just go 4 wide and throw all the time, which was kinda effective, but now he got hurt, and who knows if he'll be back. Please Shaun, Hutch is already gone, Matt might be gone, we need you back. Sincerely, Mike H.

Raiders 22, Cardinals 9 - So the Cardinals nearly beat a team that is arguably the best in football (Bears) one week, then get smoked by the team that is arguably the worst in football (Raiders) the next week? Matt Leinart looks like a seasoned veteran against the best defense in the NFL, and looks like he should still be buried deep in the depth chart against the Raiders? Football is a funny game.

Colts 36, Redskins 22 - Joseph Addai is putting up better numbers than Edgerrin James right now. I mean, I know their situations are very, very different right now, but do you think that Indy regrets letting Edge go? Like at all? Me neither.

Monday nighter is a good matchup... Giants/Cowboys. Hopefully I'll get to watch it and won't have to be writing a speech the whole time! Such is life.

Friday, 20 October 2006

NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 7

As we inch closer towards the midway point of the year, well, most things still aren't clear about the NFL. Ok, the Colts offense is good, the Bears defense is good, and the Raiders suck. We do know that, I guess.

Jaguars (-9.5) over Texans
Apparently Gary Kubiak reads this blog, because after last week I sad that Ron Dayne was atrociously bad, and now it looks like he may not even play, leaving Wali Lundy and Samkon Gado to split carries. Coincedence? I THINK NOT! Well, actually yes it was, but let's not get into that right now. The moral of the story is, the Texans are bad, and the Jags offense is a lot better now that Maurice Jones-Drew is getting more time.

Panthers (+3) over Bengals
This pick worries me, because it seems like everyone is picking the Panthers, and that can only mean bad things. I think I read that all of ESPN's "experts" picked the Panthers to win this game. Regardless, the Bengals are struggling a bit right now, while the Panthers have looked unbeatable with Steve Smith in the lineup. And Julius Peppers is a freak, if you haven't noticed. I'll ride the hot hand.

Bills (+5.5) over Patriots
In the first meeting between these two teams, the Patriots eeked out a 19-17 win on opening day after a JP Losman fumble. Now, it's in Buffalo, McGahee is running the ball well, and I don't think Losman will take another safety. I like the Pats to win, but the Bills to cover.

Bucs (+5.5) over Eagles
Vince Young's been ok, Matt Leinart's been solid, but Bruce Gradkowski has been the best performing rookie QB so far. I'm not kidding. He's sparked the offense, is making plays, and now they even have Cadillac going. In Tampa's two games with Gradkowski at the helm, they lost @ NO on a punt return, and beat the Bengals. I'll take them to cover at home against Philly.

Jets (-3.5) over Lions
The Lions were pretty solid last week, as Roy Williams has finally erased some of the Lions 1st Round WR Curse by being, well, real good. But they did get some bad news, as stud DT Shaun Rogers was suspended. Other than the game against Jacksonville, the Jets have been a consistent team that has been in ever game under Coach Eric Mangini. I look for them to get above .500 with the home game against Detroit here.

Packers (+5.5) over Dolphins
Wow. This is not a game I'd like to have to watch this week.

Chargers (-5) over Chiefs
I realize this game is at Arrowhead, but did anyone watch the Steelers/Chiefs game last week? And the spread is only 5? So much for that improved KC defense. As for the Chargers, as I keep saying, as long as they continue to let Philip Rivers throw the ball, they're very possibly the best team in the NFL. Great running game, great defense, and what looks to be a real good, young QB.

Steelers (-2.5) over Falcons
I'm sorry, I have officially jumped off the Michael Vick Bandwagon. His completion percentage is a shade above 50%, 5 points lower than last year. That's not enough to make up for a few more rushing yards a game. Now that it looks like Big Ben is back to his old self, and Willie Parker is firmly entrenched, I'll take the Steelers.

Broncos (-4.5) over Browns
Until someone does something against this Denver defense, I have a hard time picking against them. As long as Jake Plummer doesn't really have to do anything, the Broncos are real good. I don't foresee the Browns forcing this game into a situation where Plummer has to make plays.

Cardinals (-3) over Raiders
Lost in the Leinart Hype (including by me) is that early on when the numbers were great for him, he didn't really have to do anything. They put him in shotgun, he dumped the ball off, and the receivers made plays. Now, Leinart was great on the last drive, but my point here is that if the WR are making plays against the Bears defense, they'll make plays against the Raiders defense.

Seahawks (-6.5) over Vikings
I love love love the Vikings D, but I'm not sure they can score enough with Brad Johnson. Plus, if they win and my pick is wrong, well, I'm ok with that too.

Redskins (+9.5) over Colts
If the Titans can come within a point of the Colts, the Redskins can, right? Well, that logic is stupid, but I'll still take the Skins to cover. I'm still having a hard time believing they're this bad though... I'll give them one more week to redeem themselves.

Cowboys (-3) over Giants
Two very good teams, two inconsistent QBs. Drew Bledsoe is Drew Bledsoe. If he has time, he's not bad. If he doesn't, he's really, really bad. Eli Manning, I have a tougher time figuring out. At times he'll look great (2nd half vs Philly), and other times he'll make passes that leave you scratching your head. I can't figure it out. What this means is that your guess is as good as mine regarding this game... but I'll go with the home team and the Dalls Cowboys.

Last Week: 6-7
Season: 43-39-5

Thursday, 19 October 2006

College Football Picks: Week 8

In the heart of the conference schedule, as teams get ready for the stretch run... ok, I'm still working on my intros! But anyway, let's just stop this and get to the picks.

Iowa @ (2) Michigan
A couple weeks ago, Iowa was looked at as one of the top 3 or 4 teams in the Big 10, especially with Drew Tate at the helm. Now, they're barely above water after losing to Indiana, who hasn't been all that good the past few years. And now, they head into The Big House, home to what I believe is the best team in the Nation. Their only shot is if Drew Tate has some big-game heroics, but I don't see him doing enough. Not against Michigan. MICHIGAN 27-13.

(22) Boston College @ Florida St.
The Seminoles started off the year looking good with a win over Miami at the Orange Bowl... things haven't gone so well since. The offense is inconsistent, they have 2 losses, and they've fallen out of the poll. Meanwhile, BC is coming off of a convincing 22-3 win over Virginia Tech, which put them at 22 in the rankings. However, with the uncertainty over whether Matt Ryan will be able to play, combined with this game being in Tallahassee, I'll go with the Noles here. FLORIDA ST. 16-14.

(19) Rutgers @ Pittsburgh
Rutgers, yes Rutgers, is looking to remain undefeated heading into Pittsburgh (granted, they haven't exactly had a world-beating SOS). Pitt is playing pretty well themselves, as they stand at 6-1 with their only loss against Michigan St. Tyler Palko is playing very well, the D is solid, and they are getting solid contributions from the running game. For Rutgers, Ray Rice is a very solid RB, and Mike Heel has some weapons catching the ball. However, I like Palko and Pitt a little more, and I like them to drop another team from the undefeated ranks. PITTSBURGH 31-21.

(13) Georgia Tech @ (12) Clemson
Great matchup here between the two best teams in the ACC, though they have different ways of going about it. For Ga. Tech, everything is centered around Calvin Johnson, the best WR in the nation. For Clemson, it all revolves around the great running game, led by James Davis and freshman CJ Spiller. Both Davis and Spiller average over 6 YPC, and have combined for 20 rushing TD. Clemson's only loss came by 1 point at BC, while GT's only loss was by 4 points to Notre Dame. This will be a great football game between two very solid teams, but I like Georgia Tech a little more with the versatility of Reggie Ball at the QB position. GEORGIA TECH 34-31.

(5) Texas @ (17) Nebraska
The last matchup was between the two best teams in the ACC, and this pits the two best teams in the Big 12 (especially with Adrian Peterson out). Texas has played great football since the loss to Ohio St., and Nebraska has been solid all year long. For the Huskers, it's all about the passing game under Bill Callahan, and Zac Taylor has been superb, with 14 TD passes. For the Longhorns, Colt McCoy has upped him, with 18 TD passes already. But the real difference here is in the RBs... Marlon Lucky is a fine looking sophomore, but he's no match for the combo of Selvin Young and Jamaal Charles. Nebraska is Texas' top competitor, but the Longhorns are the class of the Big 12. TEXAS 28-17.

Last Week: 4-1
Season: 26-9