Sunday, 12 November 2006

College Basketball Preview: Who is this Year's George Mason?

Short answer: No one.

Long answer: There will be some very good Mid-Majors this year. So here's a list of the best Mid-Majors heading into the season (assuming that Gonzaga and Memphis have moved past being called a Mid-Major, and that the MVC is still a Mid-Major conference).

Nevada: These guys have been so good for the past few years it's hard to call them a Mid-Major. Regardless, another trip to The Dance is in order for the Wolfpack. They will again be led by senior Nick Fazekas, one of the best and most skilled big men in the country. Fazekas averaged over 21 points and 10 rebounds a game last year. He is skilled inside and outside and hurts you in many different ways. But Nevada is much more than just Nick Fazekas. Three starters return in the backcourt, including Marcelus Kemp (15 PPG), Kyle Shiloh (8.7 PPG) and PG Ramon Sessions (4.7 PPG, 5.0 APG). Add in the hunger that comes from being upset in round 1, and this will be a very good Nevada team.

Creighton: Last year, when Creighton lost their best player to injury, all they did was keep on winning. Nate Funk was hurt 6 games into the season, but like clockwork Creighton won 20 games and went to a postseason tournament. This year, Nate Funk is back, and so are a lot of other pieces, making Creighton one of the best Mid-Majors in America. The biggest question mark heading into the season is Josh Dotzler, who was excellent at the point as a freshman for Dana Altman. If he's healthy, Creighton will be competing for a high seed in the NCAAs. The aforementioned Funk is back for his second shot as a Senior year, looking to improve on the 17.8 PPG he put up two years ago. The other star for Creighton is big man Anthony Tolliver, who improved a lot last year. He finished averaging over 13 points and nearly 7 rebounds and will combine with Funk for an excellent 1-2 punch.

Southern Illinois: They were second in the MVC, won the conference tournament, and now return all of their starters. Yeah, the Salukis will be very good all again. The best part about them is they play great, lockdown defense, which will again be excellent for this veteran team. In the backcourt, Jamaal Tatum (15 PPG) and Tony Young (11.6 PPG) are back. Upfront, they've got two very active, very solid posts. One is Matt Shaw, the other is Falker. Shaw is probably a better scorer, but I really like Falker. He's active, sound defensively, and a presence on the glass. Add it all up, and the Salukis are my favorites in the MVC.

Wichita St: Expectations are high for the Shockers after their Sweet 16 run, and they have the talent once again to make a run. Gone is Paul Miller, back is almost everything else. In the backcourt is sharpshooter Sean Ogirri, who led the MVC in 3s last season. There are also a couple of versatile forwards back with Kyle Wilson and PJ Cousinard. The guy to watch is Gal Mekel, the freshman from Israel. From what I read, he's drawn comparisons to Steve Nash, who's pretty decent. All in all, another Tourney run appears to be in the works for the Shockers, and they have the talent to get right back to where they were, the Sweet 16.

Missouri St: Of all the teams that missed the NCAA Tournament, Missouri St. probably had the best case. Great RPI, excellent record, and now a huge chip on their shoulder. With four starters back and a good bench, they've got the means to leave no doubt in the committee's minds this year. They're led by Blake Ahearn, who averaged 16 PPG last year and shot a ridiculous 93.6% at the FT line last year. After that it's just a lot of talented role players, who should be very motivated to get to the Tourney this season.

Xavier: After an up-and-down season, Xavier went on to win the A-10 Tournament before nearly pulling off the 14-3 upset on Gonzaga in the Tourney. They couldn't pull it off, but they showed what they're capable of. They return almost everything and will be an experienced group. Stanley Burrell, who averaged over 14 PPG last year will be back for his junior season. Justin Cage, Justin Doellman, and Josh Duncan are also back. But none of that may be as important as the addition of Drew Lavendar. Lavendar started at PG for Big 12 Oklahoma as a freshman and sophomore before deciding to transfer, and Xavier was the beneficiary of that. Lavendar is extremely quick, shoots well, gets others involved, and is a good defender. He should immediately be one of the best players in the A-10 and is one of the main reasons Xavier is the favorite in that conference.

San Diego State: Unfortunately, Marcus Slaughter decided to leave early after his junior year, and he was not drafted. Slaughter averaged 16 points and 11 rebounds per game, and was one of the best players in the Mountain West. But even though he's gone, the cupboard is far from bare. Brandon Heath is still there, and he is now the best player in the conference after averaging over 18 PPG as a junior. Also returning is big man Mohamed Abukar, an extremely skilled and diverse scorer. Even with Heath and Slaughter, Abukar averaged 14 points a game, and is a great outside shooter for his size, as well as having the ability to score in the post. With the addition of another transfer coming in with Lorrenzo Wade (from Louisville), and sophomore Kyle Spain returning, the Aztecs are once again the Mountain West favorites.

Who do you think is the best Mid-Major?

Saturday, 11 November 2006

College Basketball Preview: SEC


This could very well be the best conference in America. They had two Final Four teams last year, and will be very strong once again.

Player of the Year: First off, you can pretty much take your pick among the Gators... Joakim Noah is the crown jewel in the media, but Al Horford is more versatile, Corey Brewer's excellent defensively as a wing player, and Taurean Green ran the show last year. When you're the defending national champs and the whole starting lineup is back, it wouldn't surprise me if any of them won it. But don't overlook the rest of the field, because there are some more great players. One is Alabama PG Ronald Steele. He averaged over 40 minutes per game in SEC contests last year. That's not a misprint. He scores, controls the game, plays good defense, and hits 90% of his free throws. In Bama's two tourney games last year he averaged 22 points and 6 assists per. He's certainly one of the top PGs in the nation.

Another excellent guard is Chris Lofton of Tennessee. He's the best returning shooter in the SEC, and may be the best returning scorer. He's got unbelievable range, and as he showed against Winthrop in the Tourney, ice in his veins. He'll be excellent in Year 2 under Bruce Pearl. After that, we come to the big men. And they don't get much bigger than Glen "Big Baby" Davis (though he has slimmed down). He's just a fun player to watch... good scorer in the low post, excellent midrange game for a center, and a relentless rebounder. Then there are the overlooked parts of his game... he's got great footwork and maybe the best hands of any big man in the country. He's the reason that LSU won't drop off much if at all after losing Darrel Mitchell and Tyrus Thomas.

Next is Randolph Morris, who showed flashes of that big potential in the low post. He'll be counted on heavily is Kentucky is going to be able to get back to the days of old (and by that I mean like 3 years ago). But in the end, most people like Joakim Noah to win this. And why not? He's excellent on the glass, finishes as well as anyone, and is the best defensive player in the conference. But my pick is Glen Davis, a beast of a man that will carry LSU to another great year.

Freshmen to Watch: There probably aren't as many freshmen that will make huge impacts here as in other conferences, but that has a lot to do with the depth coming back. There are, however, some that will play major roles. Especially for Tennessee, where Ramar Smith, Duke Crews, and Wayne Chrism will each be huge factors to the Vols continuing success. Smith may start along Chris Lofton at the guard spots, while Crews and Chism will be counted on down low after Andrae Patterson graduated and Major Wingate was dismissed. Elsewhere, Arkansas will look to Patrick Beverley to help lessen the loss of Ronnie Brewer, Verice Cloyd will be another weapon for Ronald Steele and Alabama, and Derrick Jasper will be an excellent guard off the bench for Tubby Smith in Lexington.

Breakout Players: The list of breakout candidates is long. We can start with Jermareo Davidson of Alabama, though some might consider him already to have broken out. He considered going to the draft before coming back to establish himself as one of the best big men in the SEC. Then there is Dane Bradshaw for Tennessee, one of the great glue guys in the NCAA. He's a solid outside shooter, but he also plays very solid defense, rebounds well, and is a very good passer. He's kinda like the Luke Walton of the NCAA. Next is Tasmin Mitchell, the underlooked freshman for LSU last year. He was nearly as good as Tyrus Thomas, and he'll be an excellent second option for Glen Davis.

Joe Crawford is back for Kentucky, and like Randolph Morris, he will need to be an integral part for the Wildcats. If Georgia will improve this year, they're going to need a lot of production from G Levi Stukes, who should be up to the task as a senior. Similarly, if Vandy is going to get back into contention, they need more improvement from Shan Foster. He averaged about 16 PPG last year and looks to be ready to lead Vandy at least to an NIT berth.

Predicted Order of Finish
EAST
1. Florida
2. Tennessee
3. Kentucky
4. Georgia
5. South Carolina
6. Vanderbilt

WEST
1. LSU
2. Alabama
3. Arkansas
4. Mississippi St
5. Auburn
6. Mississippi

Friday, 10 November 2006

NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 10

Just by dumb luck, I should at least start to improve after some really bad weeks... I might just blindfold myself and throw darts to try to pick this week's games.

Texans (+10) over Jaguars
I don't understand the Jags... they get blown out by Houston, then come back to beat Philly and then thoroughly dominate the Titans. As good as they looked last week, the NFL season is probably too weird for them to dominate like that 2 weeks in a row.

Ravens (-7) over Titans
Vince Young against the Ravens defense... I don't see this ending well for Tennessee.

Redskins (+7) over Eagles
Will the Redskins decide to show up this week? Your guess is probably as good as mine... but my guess will be yes. At least show up enough to cover the spread.

Lions (-6) over 49ers
Don't look now, but the Lions offense is actually pretty solid right now. The 49ers may be able to hold the Vikings offense down, but I think the Lions should be able to score a lot of points here, especially at home.

Bengals (+1) over Chargers
Both of these teams have been inconsistent... they'll look like a great team one week and then lose to a team they shouldn't have the next week. It makes me head hurt. So I'll just go with the home team here.

Jets (-10.5) over Patriots
Another game where I really don't know what will happen... Jets played them tough in their first meeting, so I'll take the spread here.

Chiefs (+1) over Dolphins
I know the Dolphins looked very good last week, but doesn't anyone remember all the other weeks before that. The Chiefs still have Larry Johnson, and I expect them to ride him to a another victory.

Green Bay (+5) over Minnesota
The Vikings would have trouble scoring a high school team right now. I think the Vikings have a great shot to win, but I'm not picking them at -5 over any team in the NFL.

Browns (+9.5) over Falcons
The Lions came into Atlanta last week and won by 16 points. Which probably means the Falcons are due to win by about 30. Hopefully the Browns can keep it close.

Bills (+12) over Colts
It seems like the Colts have kind of taken things easy against lesser opponents this year. I like the Bills defense just enough that they can keep it within 12.

Broncos (-9) over Raiders
The Broncos have always had the great defense and running game, but even Jake Plummer is starting to play better. And if Jake Plummer is above average at all, the Broncos are probably the second best team in the AFC.

Saints (+4.5) over Steelers
I know the Steelers are the defending champs, but they're 2-6 and haven't really been playing that well at all. Even in Pittsburgh, I'll take the Saints to at least cover here.

Rams (+3) over Seahawks
Seneca Wallace has been holding down the fort very well for the Seahawks, but the Rams know if they lose this, their shot for a division title will look very slim.

Cowboys (-6.5) over Cardinals
Cardinals suck right now. Plain and simple.

Giants (-1) over Bears
When Rex Grossman has time to throw, he's an All-Pro. When the defense can consistently get some type of pressure on him, he becomes one of the worst QBs in the League. With the Bears running game looking pretty average, I expect the Giants to bring the pressure and rattle Rex.

Bucs (+9.5) over Panthers
The Panthers have just been too maddeningly inconsistent for me to take them with this line. I expect Tampa to keep this game relatively close at the very least.

Last Week: 4-10
Season: 56-66-6