Wednesday, 11 October 2006

2006 National League Awards

After unveiling my American League Awards, it's time to look at the NL. Because that's how things usually work.

MVP
Lance Berkman was fantastic this year, but it seems that the MVP will either be Albert Pujols or Ryan Howard. Both had outstanding years, and both are very good candidates. I think Howard will get it because all of the homeruns, but as we all know, there are important things in life other than homeruns.

In my mind, Pujols and Howard are pretty much even. Pujols has been a slightly better hitter and a better defender, but Howard has more ABs. If I had a vote, I would go with Albert Pujols... but I can't fault anyone that would take Howard. Both have been unbelievable.

1. Albert Pujols
2. Ryan Howard
3. Lance Berkman
4. Carlos Beltran
5. Miguel Cabrera

Cy Young
Not a great class here... I will say that I find the Trevor Hoffman arguments to be off-base. He's been fantastic, but I don't think he has enough innings or has quite been dominant to be included anywhere near the Cy Young discussions. The best reliever in the NL this year, in my opinion, is... Takashi Saito. He pitched 15 more innings than Hoffman, had a lower ERA, and struck out over twice as many guys as Hoffman. Just because he didn't have the save opportunities that Hoffman has doesn't make him less valuable.

But still, not valuable enough to the Cy Young. There are four guys that should be vying for it... Roy Oswalt, Chris Carpenter, Brandon Webb, and Bronson Arroyo. Oswalt is the frontrunner for me because he was great down the stretch and has a very good K:BB ratio. If playoff contributions counted, Carpenter would get the nod for me, but, they don't.

A guy I do think is being underrated a little bit is Bronson Arroyo. His raw numbers aren't as impressive as the others, but doing what he did in the Great American Ballpark is excellent. 3.29 ERA with a good strikeout and walk rate... very impressive year.

1. Roy Oswalt
2. Bronson Arroyo
3. Chris Carpenter
4. Brandon Webb
5. John Smoltz

Rookie of the Year
Wow. Just like the AL, a great crop of rookies this year. Unlike the AL, a lot of these guys are position players to go along with the great pitchers. I suppose Takashi Saito is a rookie, and should be my pick since I hyped him up so much in the Cy discussions, but he's 36. So that doesn't really count. But as far as rookie pitchers go, Josh Johnson, Scott Olsen, Matt Cain, Cole Hamels, and Anibal Sanchez are a great group.

But the NL rookie hitters are even more impressive. In Florida, Hanley Ramirez, Dan Uggla, and Josh Willingham were excellent. Elsewhere, Prince Fielder, Ryan Zimmerman, and Russell Martin can all stake claim to the award. But for me, one guy sticks out: Hanley Ramirez. It's not just the 51 steals while playing SS. He gets on base at a good rate (.353) and slugged almost equally as well as Prince Fielder. Hanley Ramirez finished with a very solid 74 XBH. Right behind him, in my mind, is Ryan Zimmerman. Zimmerman is already one of the top 3B in the MLB, hitting 20 HR, showing a good eye at the plate, and playing great defense at the hot corner. These two are on top of an unbelievable class.

1. Hanley Ramirez
2. Ryan Zimmerman
3. Prince Fielder
4. Josh Johnson
5. Dan Uggla

Once again, any big errors? Who are your picks?

Tuesday, 10 October 2006

2006 American League Awards

I don't have the energy to put all this all in one post, and it would get very long, so I'll just cut it in half, and go for the American League awards now:

MVP
More than any other year, there are lots and lots of legitimate candidates. Heck, I've seen guys that are as high as 1 and as low as 8 or 9 on some ballots... the class is that strong. Before he got hurt, I would have put Travis Hafner as my MVP. Obviously he doesn't play defense, but he was the best hitter in the American League this year when he was healthy. Manny Ramirez was also fantastic at the plate, but he had even less ABs than Hafner.

The toughest thing about this crop of candidates is that all of them are so similiar... Hafner, David Ortiz, Justin Morneau, Jim Thome, Frank Thomas, etc. For the most part, they're very good hitting 1B/DH. Other than Morneau, none of those guys contributes at all in the field.

Then there's the guys that contribute greatly not only at the plate but in the field. Joe Mauer is a gold-glove caliaber backstop, Derek Jeter plays an average SS, Grady Sizemore is a great defensive CF, and Jermaine Dye has a cannon in right. Personally I tend to favor these guys a bit (as you'll notice).

So who's my MVP? I'll give you a hint, he put up a .429 OBP while playing catcher. To a lot of Twins fans, Joe Mauer wasn't even the MVP of the Twins... but I'd obviously disagree. Mauer was the rock in the lineup, posting a great OBP at #3. Also, while he didn't hit a lot of HR, he did hit a good amount of doubles, which helped contribute to a solid SLG. He finished 7th in the league in OPS (right above Morneau). Oh yeah, and he played great defense at the most demanding defensive position.

1. Joe Mauer
2. Derek Jeter
3. Grady Sizemore
4. Jermaine Dye
5. Johan Santana

Cy Young
There's really no debate up top. Johan led the league in Wins, ERA, Ks, and IP. If he doesn't win the Cy, we'll know for sure the award is a sham. This should be his 3rd straight, but I guess I'll have to settle for #2.

After that is where things start to get real hazy. Kelvim Escobar (11-14) is 6th in the league in ERA. CC Sabathia, John Lackey, and Mike Mussina also deserve some consideration.

But the other factor is closers. Normally, I would say closers don't deserve to be in the discussion. Pitching 70 innings is just not as valuable as pitching 200 innings. However, some things are at work here. For one, there were a lot of legitimately great closers this year. K-Rod, Mariano Rivera, Jonathon Papelbon, Joe Nathan, BJ Ryan, and JJ Putz were all unvelievable this year. Combine that with mediocre starting pitching, and I think some closers deserve to at least be in the discussion.

1. Johan Santana
2. Roy Halladay
3. Mike Mussina
4. JJ Putz
5. CC Sabathia

Rookie of the Year
If only Francisco Liriano hadn't gotten hurt. Then we'd be talking about him as the easy ROY and a Cy Young candidate. He was that dominant this year. But there's no need to dwell on the past. Health was a big issue for the class... Papelbon also missed extensive time. Which I why I like Verlander the one pitcher to throw over 125 innings, and he threw 186. That's a huge margin.

After that, Liriano and Weaver were great in about 120 innings. Papelbon was lights out in the pen. Ditto for Joel Zumaya. In any other year, these guys are worthy winners. Nick Markakis was excellent as well. But I think the top 5 spots all belong to pitchers this year, who, if healthy, can wreak havoc in the AL for year.

1. Justin Verlander
2. Jonathon Papelbon
3. Francisco Liriano
4. Jered Weaver
5. Joel Zumaya

Any egregious errors?

Monday, 9 October 2006

So that is why I'm not a professional

0 for 4. Whoops.

I wasn't really surprised Oakland beat Minnesota, but I was a little surprised at the ease in which they did it. Ditto for St. Louis and New York. I was surprised Detroit beat the Yankees, especially so soundly in Games 3 and 4. That's a dynamite Yankee lineup, but the Tigers were awesome. And this is the team that got swept at home to Kansas City to end the regular season. Baseball is a funny game.

But now we head onto the ALCS and NLCS. Tigers at A's, Cardinals at Mets. Not the matchups I was anticipating, but they should provide some competitive games, unlike the first round. Some questions:

Can anyone stop Albert Pujols?
The National League couldn't do it all year. The Padres didn't have much luck in Round 1. Do I think John Maine, Tom Glavine, and Steve Trachsel can do in the NLCS? Well, let's just say that Albert may be receiving some free passes this round. As someone once said, you can't stop him, you can only hope to contain him.

Do the Cardinals have the pitching depth to slow down the Mets?
Doubtful. Jeff Weaver is an ok #4 starter... but he's the 2nd best for St. Louis and the Game 1 starter. Game 2 will belong to Jeff Suppan, who did not fare well against San Diego lst round. If the Cardinals don't get two great performances from Chris Carpenter (like in the NLDS), I'm, very skeptical about this staff's ability to hold the Mets down.

Was that a one-game abberation for Kenny Rogers?
Historically, "The Gambler" has been awful in the postseason, with an ERA on the wrong side of 8 going into his Game 3 start. Which is why it made perfect sense for him to shut down New York. But was that an abberation or can he continue that? If the rotation holds, Rogers would be pitching Game 3 and a potential Game 7... so if Rogers can come close to duplicating his ALDS performance, Detroit could be sitting pretty.

Can the Oakland offense do what they did against Minnesota?
Oakland didn't set the world on fire at the plate in Round 1, but they took a lot of pitches, worked the pitch counts, hit a couple homers, and did very well with RISP. Once again, they'll be facing a great staff with a deep bullpen. Can they score enough runs for their solid pitching staff?

Do we have to listen to another prediction?
I'm afraid so. Oakland in 7, Mets in 6.