With the second round underway, some predictions:
Bulls over Hawks in 6 games
The Hawks won Game 1, but I think the Bulls are simply the better team. Derrick Rose is the best player in the series, and the Bulls are the better defensive team. When you have the best player and better defense, you're usually going to win.
Heat over Celtics in 5
Suddenly the Celtics are showing their age, and they seem to be lacking a true identity ever since they traded away Kendrick Perkins. The Heat are still not firing at all cylinders (maybe next year when they are more used to playing together), but they are easily playing well enough to win this series.
Thunder over Grizzlies in 7
The Grizzlies dominated game 1, but I am not sure they quite have the firepower to bea the Thunder 4 times. The interior defense of OKC is too good to get abused by Zach Randolph like that every game. The Grizz have solid perimeter defenders to slow down Kevin Durant, but he is too good to be contained.
Lakers over Mavericks in 7
Dallas was game 1 in LA, giving them an upper hand early. But I like the Lakers to win, as they are too good down low. Tyson Chandler is as good as they come defensively down low, but he needs to more help, and I am not sure he will get quite enough on the defensive end. Pau Gasol needs to be huge in this series, and I think he can.
Monday, 2 May 2011
Thursday, 14 April 2011
NBA First Round Playoff Predictions
The playoffs are once again among us... some predictions for the first round.
EAST
1 Chicago over 8 Indiana in 4 games
The Bulls are the more complete, talented team. They are better offensively and defensively. This should be the least interesting series in round 1.
2 Miami over 7 Philadelphia in 5 games
As much as I want to see the 76ers pull one out, it is not going to happen. They don't have the firepower to hang with the star-studded Heat. Iggy can only guard LeBron or Wade.
3 Boston over 6 New York in 7 games
The Celtics come limping into the playoffs, trying to find an identity again after the Kendrick Perkins trade. Funny things can happen when the Knicks get into the playoffs... Game 7 in Boston, though, gives them the advantage.
4 Orlando over 5 Atlanta in 6 games
I'm not sold on the Magic as legitimate contenders, but I think they have the firepower to overtake the Hawks.
WEST
1 San Antonio over 8 Memphis in 6 games
This is an intriguing game since people think the Spurs are a weak 1 and the Griz a strong 8, but reports of an upset have been greatly exaggerated. The Spurs still have the big 3, and Manu Ginobili will be the best player in this series.
2 Los Angeles over 7 New Orleans in 5 games
If David West were healthy, this might be an interesting series. As it is, I don't see the Lakers faltering, even as poor as they have played down the stretch.
6 Portland over 3 Dallas in 7 games
The upset of the first round, I like the more athletic Blazers to take down Dallas, even though Dirk is playing as well as anyone in the NBA. The Mavs need Tyson Chandler to be huge in this series, but I am not sure he is up to it.
4 Oklahoma City over 5 Denver in 6 games
It should be the most entertaining series in the first round, as both teams get out and run. The difference is that one of these teams have Kevin Durant, and one does not.
What are your predictions?
EAST
1 Chicago over 8 Indiana in 4 games
The Bulls are the more complete, talented team. They are better offensively and defensively. This should be the least interesting series in round 1.
2 Miami over 7 Philadelphia in 5 games
As much as I want to see the 76ers pull one out, it is not going to happen. They don't have the firepower to hang with the star-studded Heat. Iggy can only guard LeBron or Wade.
3 Boston over 6 New York in 7 games
The Celtics come limping into the playoffs, trying to find an identity again after the Kendrick Perkins trade. Funny things can happen when the Knicks get into the playoffs... Game 7 in Boston, though, gives them the advantage.
4 Orlando over 5 Atlanta in 6 games
I'm not sold on the Magic as legitimate contenders, but I think they have the firepower to overtake the Hawks.
WEST
1 San Antonio over 8 Memphis in 6 games
This is an intriguing game since people think the Spurs are a weak 1 and the Griz a strong 8, but reports of an upset have been greatly exaggerated. The Spurs still have the big 3, and Manu Ginobili will be the best player in this series.
2 Los Angeles over 7 New Orleans in 5 games
If David West were healthy, this might be an interesting series. As it is, I don't see the Lakers faltering, even as poor as they have played down the stretch.
6 Portland over 3 Dallas in 7 games
The upset of the first round, I like the more athletic Blazers to take down Dallas, even though Dirk is playing as well as anyone in the NBA. The Mavs need Tyson Chandler to be huge in this series, but I am not sure he is up to it.
4 Oklahoma City over 5 Denver in 6 games
It should be the most entertaining series in the first round, as both teams get out and run. The difference is that one of these teams have Kevin Durant, and one does not.
What are your predictions?
Wednesday, 23 March 2011
Sweet 16 Predictions
With 2 (or 3, depending on who you ask) rounds complete, it is time to make some predictions on who will make the Final Four.
EAST
1 Ohio St over 4 Kentucky
The Wildcats are just as talented as the Buckeyes, but there is no making up for the experience difference. When toughness is needed, I trust guys like William Buford, David Lighty, and Jon Diebler more than I trust anyone on Kentucky.
2 North Carolina over 11 Marquette
I think UNC caught a bit of a break when Marquette knocked off Syracuse, because UNC would have struggled with the Orange zone. Buzz Williams is one heck of a coach, so expect this to be a tight game, tighter than the talent difference would indicate. But in the end, Marquette doesn't have anyone as good as Harrison Barnes.
1 Ohio St. over 2 North Carolina
Much like the Buckeyes previous game against Kentucky, the Heels have the talent to stick with Ohio St., but not the experience. Buckeyes will not be denied, as nobody has looked better so far in the Tourney.
WEST
1 Duke over 5 Arizona
Arizona is very fortunate to have gotten this far. They needed a last second block by Derrick Williams to get past Memphis (when there arguably could have been a foul called on the rebound), and they needed a 5 second call on Texas (which arguably should have been a timeout granted for the Horns) before their winning basket. Derrick Williams is the X Factor, because he is playing as well as anyone in the country, but Duke just has too many horses for Arizona to stick around.
2 San Diego St over 3 UConn
The Aztecs won perhaps the worst March Madness double OT game in history, but don't hold it against them, they simply win. They got a bad game from their star and still beat a good Temple team. Against SDSU's big and athletic front line, Kemba Walker could find those holes to the basket closing more quickly than he is used to.
2 San Diego St over 1 Duke
If there is anyone that Duke is susceptible to, it would be an athletic team with a talented front line. The Aztecs fit that bill. While Duke will have a decided edge in the backcourt, look for SDSU's frontcourt to take command. Also, this game will be in Anaheim, making it a virtual home game for the winner of the Mountain West.
SOUTHWEST
1 Kansas over 12 Richmond
Richmond is a great story, but they simply don't have the horses to compete against KU. The Jayhawks will be able to throw plenty of athletes at Kevin Anderson, and the Spiders need big things from him to advance. Not going to happen.
11 VCU over 10 Florida St.
The Seminoles were extremely impressive in their win over Notre Dame, but they had perhaps their best offensive game of the year, something we have not seen consistently from them. I don't think we will see it again this week. VCU is playing as well as anyone.
1 Kansas over 11 VCU
Don't feel bad for Shaka Smart though, he appears ready to cash in on a big payday.
SOUTHEAST
4 Wisconsin over 8 Butler
Everyone (including myself) underrated the Badgers for their miserable Big 10 performance, but this is a very quality team. They don't turn the ball over, are efficient on offense, and have two studs in Jordan Taylor and Jon Leuer. This will be a slow game and won't be one to tell the grandkids about, but I like Wisconsin. First to 50 wins.
3 BYU over 2 Florida
Don't underestimate Jimmer. Not sure how BYU will be able to slow down Florida inside, but I like them to get up and down, and for Jimmer to score just enough. Hopefully we get another game like their first round battle last season.
4 Wisconsin over 3 BYU
The Badgers become the second Big Ten team in the Final Four, as Bo Ryan shows his genius by controlling tempo and frustrating Jimmer.
What are your picks?
EAST
1 Ohio St over 4 Kentucky
The Wildcats are just as talented as the Buckeyes, but there is no making up for the experience difference. When toughness is needed, I trust guys like William Buford, David Lighty, and Jon Diebler more than I trust anyone on Kentucky.
2 North Carolina over 11 Marquette
I think UNC caught a bit of a break when Marquette knocked off Syracuse, because UNC would have struggled with the Orange zone. Buzz Williams is one heck of a coach, so expect this to be a tight game, tighter than the talent difference would indicate. But in the end, Marquette doesn't have anyone as good as Harrison Barnes.
1 Ohio St. over 2 North Carolina
Much like the Buckeyes previous game against Kentucky, the Heels have the talent to stick with Ohio St., but not the experience. Buckeyes will not be denied, as nobody has looked better so far in the Tourney.
WEST
1 Duke over 5 Arizona
Arizona is very fortunate to have gotten this far. They needed a last second block by Derrick Williams to get past Memphis (when there arguably could have been a foul called on the rebound), and they needed a 5 second call on Texas (which arguably should have been a timeout granted for the Horns) before their winning basket. Derrick Williams is the X Factor, because he is playing as well as anyone in the country, but Duke just has too many horses for Arizona to stick around.
2 San Diego St over 3 UConn
The Aztecs won perhaps the worst March Madness double OT game in history, but don't hold it against them, they simply win. They got a bad game from their star and still beat a good Temple team. Against SDSU's big and athletic front line, Kemba Walker could find those holes to the basket closing more quickly than he is used to.
2 San Diego St over 1 Duke
If there is anyone that Duke is susceptible to, it would be an athletic team with a talented front line. The Aztecs fit that bill. While Duke will have a decided edge in the backcourt, look for SDSU's frontcourt to take command. Also, this game will be in Anaheim, making it a virtual home game for the winner of the Mountain West.
SOUTHWEST
1 Kansas over 12 Richmond
Richmond is a great story, but they simply don't have the horses to compete against KU. The Jayhawks will be able to throw plenty of athletes at Kevin Anderson, and the Spiders need big things from him to advance. Not going to happen.
11 VCU over 10 Florida St.
The Seminoles were extremely impressive in their win over Notre Dame, but they had perhaps their best offensive game of the year, something we have not seen consistently from them. I don't think we will see it again this week. VCU is playing as well as anyone.
1 Kansas over 11 VCU
Don't feel bad for Shaka Smart though, he appears ready to cash in on a big payday.
SOUTHEAST
4 Wisconsin over 8 Butler
Everyone (including myself) underrated the Badgers for their miserable Big 10 performance, but this is a very quality team. They don't turn the ball over, are efficient on offense, and have two studs in Jordan Taylor and Jon Leuer. This will be a slow game and won't be one to tell the grandkids about, but I like Wisconsin. First to 50 wins.
3 BYU over 2 Florida
Don't underestimate Jimmer. Not sure how BYU will be able to slow down Florida inside, but I like them to get up and down, and for Jimmer to score just enough. Hopefully we get another game like their first round battle last season.
4 Wisconsin over 3 BYU
The Badgers become the second Big Ten team in the Final Four, as Bo Ryan shows his genius by controlling tempo and frustrating Jimmer.
What are your picks?
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