2009 NBA Draft Preview: Power Forwards

This article can also be found here.

When looking at the power forward class of the 2009 NBA Draft, the conversation obviously begins with Blake Griffin from Oklahoma. He considered entering the draft after his freshman season (where he could have been a lottery pick), but decided to come back for one more year at Oklahoma to refine his game. It turned out to be a great decision. He absolutely dominated the college ranks as a sophomore, winning national player of the year awards and looking like a man among boys, and enters the draft as the undisputed #1 pick, the lone sure thing in a weak draft.

The numbers he put up were eye-popping. He averaged 22.7 PPG, lead the NCAA in rebounding at 14.4 RPG. Just for good measure, he also averaged over 2 APG, and one steal and block per game. He did this while shooting a staggering 65% from the field. But it wasn't even just the numbers, it was the way he did it. Physically, he was no match for anyone in the college game, meaning he should be ready to play right away. He can finish with either hand by the basket, and shows refined post moves. He outmuscles opponents for rebounding, and can get great position at any time. He knows how to use his body down low very well, and is very crafty in the post. His athletic ability is excellent for a big man, and he has a good handle on the ball. He needs to show more assertiveness and focus on the defensive side of the basketball, but that is just a small qualm. He will be the first pick in the draft, and he looks very ready to make an immediate impact in the NBA.

The next power forward off the board will be Jordan Hill from Arizona, who looks like he will potentially go in the top 5. He is a very high energy guy, and his game most looks like a more highly skilled Anderson Varajeo. He was one of the most improved players in college basketball this year. He has turned into a decent scorer down low. Mostly though, he is a very high energy rebounder and defensive player. He will do all of the little things necessary to win. If he can continue to develop his offensive game, he will be a very good NBA player. At worst, he should be a very good rotation player.

After that, there are a few different guys that could go off the board. One is Dejuan Blair from Pittsburgh. He is undersized at 6'7'', and there are some physical concerns about him, but he has lots of positives. Most chiefly, he is a great rebounder. He is very strong, and knows how to work his way into position. He is especially adept at grabbing offensive rebounds. He is a crafty low post scorer, and showed against Hasheem Thabeet that he can score even against players much bigger than him. He is one of the toughest players in the draft, and that should help him in his transition to the faster, stronger NBA game.

Then there is Tyler Hansbrough. Of course, he had a very distinguished collegiate career, with all sorts of awards, records, and a national title. Unfortunately, none of that means anything anymore. He is probably the hardest worker in the draft, but will his lack of elite athleticism hurt him? He can score in a variety of ways, and you know that he will work harder than anyone else at improving his weaknesses, but how high is his ceiling? That is the question teams will be asking. Finally there is James Johnson from Wake Forest, a guy who could go at high as in the late lottery. He has a lot of potential and talent, but he doesn't always have the consistency to go along with it.

So when looking at the power forwards in this year's draft, Blake Griffin is obviously the guy that stands out. He is the consensus #1 pick in the draft and the most sure thing in the draft. After him, there are a couple potential lottery picks, but nobody else that will have near the impact of Griffin. It will be interesting to see how things shake out!

NBA Draft 2009 Preview: Small Forwards

There is no way to sugar coat it - the small forward position looks to be the weakest position in a weak draft. There might not be anyone at that position drafted in the lottery, and there does not appear to be a whole lot of depth at the position either. There are some guys with the potential to be very good players, but there is nobody within the group that has been able to combine great athletic skills with consistently excellent basketball at the collegiate level. Which leaves basically two groups at the position - first, the guys with tools that have not consistently performed, and the guys that were great performers at the collegiate level but don't have the tools to be great NBA players.

The first small forward off the board could be Austin Daye from Gonzaga. He was a very highly touted prospect coming out of high school, but has never really been able to consistently put his game at the level that Mark Few hoped he would. Though he needs to bulk up, he has the height to cause all type of mismatch problems at SF, or the quickness to cause a lot of matchup problems at PF. He has shown at times that he can be both and efficient and explosive scorer. He only averaged 12.7 PPG, but he shot great percentages, showing the ability to both get to the rim, hit the midrange jumper, or hit from the outside. However, he had the tendency to explode one game, and then disappear the next, meaning you are not sure what you are going to get from him on a night to night basis. But his game is not all scoring. He is a solid rebounder (though again he needs to add bulk), ballhandler (for a man his size), and passer. If he had been able to put his game together on a consistent basis for the Zags, he could have been a top 5 pick. As it is, he will likely go sometime in the late lottery.

Next is Earl Clark, another guy with loads of potential but lots of questions about his game and about his consistency. If you would look only at his NCAA Tournament performances the past couple of years, you would think he was a top 10 pick, no questions asked. But when you look at his whole body of work, you start to question whether or not he will be able to bring it on an every night basis in the NBA. He can score both on the block or on the outside, and has a good enough handle to take his man off the dribble. He can get down and rebound, he is a great passer for a man his size, and he has the physical tools to be a solid defender. His great run in the NCAA Tournament should boost his stock, but scouts will still wonder why he could not do that game after game throughout the season. Again, like Daye, he has the potential to be a very solid NBA player, but he also may never live up to his potential.

After that are a couple of tweeners... guys that played the 3 in college but might be better suited for the 2 in the NBA. Gerald Henderson from Duke is one of the most athletic players in the Draft, but he will likely fall out of the lottery. There are questions about his jumpshot and handle, and so it's hard to project his role in the NBA. He can defend, and he can use his athleticism on the break (which makes him ideal for a running team), but he might be a little limited other than that. Terrence Williams from Louisville is a guy that got better and better as his career went on. He doesn't do anything exceptionally well, but he solid all across the board. He is a solid shooter, great rebounder, and great passer. He can be a really good role player on a solid team.

The only other small forward that looks like he will be drafted in the first round for sure is Derrick Brown out of Xavier. He does not have the all-around game that some of the other small forward prospects have, but he is probably the most athletic of the bunch. He can fly up and down the court and jump out of the gym. This allows him to be a very good defender, as well as a solid slasher offensively. He can be very solid for an up-tempo team, as his athleticism allows him to be a menace on the break.

So there is not much star power or depth at the small forward spot in the 2009 NBA Draft. There might not be any taken in the lottery, and there is not a lot of depth throughout the rest of the first round to compensate for that. If a team is looking for a sure solution at this spot, they probably will not find it in the 2009 Draft.

NBA Draft 2009 Preview: Shooting Guards

This article can also be found here.

If you are looking for a franchise shooting guard in the 2009 NBA Draft, you best look elsewhere. There are some solid rotation players, and maybe someday an all-star or two amongst the group, but it is a position that is lacking in both star power and depth this year.

The head of the class is James Harden from Arizona St. In two years, he has helped turn the Sun Devils program around, being one of the most productive players in the country. While he is not blessed with great athletic ability, he is a very crafty, refined player. He is a silky smooth left-hander, with the ability to both hit the outside shot and get to the rim and score. He can rebound, pass, and defend. He will not wow you in any area, but he is just a very solid player. He will be helped by the weakness of the draft, as it should propel him into the top 5 and likely the top SG off the board.

Next there is Tyreke Evans, who is more of a combo guard from Memphis. While he predominantly played the point in his one year, shooting guard looks like his more natural position. He is a very athletically gifted player, and should be able to get to the rim at the next level. If 2 guard does wind up being where he plays in the NBA, he should be able to score and defend very well and be a solid starter on a good team.

Next is DeMar DeRozan from USC. He is one of the 3 most athletically gifted and overall talented players in the draft, but his production did not match his talent in his lone season at USC. He has all of the physcial tools necessary to be a great player, but he was plagued by inconsistency. At times he looked like a star, and at other times he looked like, well, a freshman. If he can continue to improve his jump shot and work on bringing his best every night, he could be a steal for someone in the late lottery.

After that are a couple of tweeners... guys that played the 3 in college but might be better suited for the 2 in the NBA. Gerald Henderson from Duke is one of the most athletic players in the Draft, but he will likely fall out of the lottery. There are questions about his jumpshot and handle, and so it's hard to project his role in the NBA. He can defend, and he can use his athleticism on the break (which makes him ideal for a running team), but he might be a little limited other than that. Terrence Williams from Louisville is a guy that got better and better as his career went on. He doesn't do anything exceptionally well, but he solid all across the board. He is a solid shooter, great rebounder, and great passer. He can be a really good role player on a solid team.

So there are no real stars at the SG position of this year's NBA Draft, and there's not a lot of depth, but there are some guys that should be solid NBA players. James Harden looks like the best of the lot, but there are a few guys here that should have nice, productive careers in the NBA.