Thursday, 6 September 2007

NFL Picks Against the Spread 2007: Week 1

I finished under .500 last season, so this year is already off to a better start, since I went with the Colts.

Speaking of the Colts/Saints, what a disappointing start to the NFL season. That was a massacre. The Saints didn't even try throwing the ball downfield, and they couldn't run the ball either. I really thought that was going to be a great game, and it wound up being rather dull. I already feel stupid about picking the Colts to lose 4 times this year... if they play like that, who's going to beat them? Wow. Anyway, on to my week 1 picks:

Redskins (-3) over Dolphins
Sorry, not a big believer in the Dolphins this year. Old QB, mediocre running game, the receivers aren't that good, etc. I think that at home, Washington will be able to easily take care of the Dolphins.

Rams (-1) over Panthers
As I said in my NFC predictions, I really like the Rams this year. Bulger and Co. are tough offensively, especially at home on the turf. The Panthers will have a shot if they control things with their running game, but I think the difference between Bulger and Delhomme will make the difference in this game.

Seahawks (-6) over Bucs
Again, I'll take the home team that's favored. Let's see how Jeff Garcia does here now that he doesn't have Brian Westbrook for defenses to focus on. I have a feeling the results won't be as good as they were last year.

Bears (+5.5) over Chargers
I think this will be a real tight ballgame, which is why I'm taking the Bears to cover. I still think the Bolts will win it, but as long as Grossman keeps the mistakes down a little bit, the Bears defense is good enough to keep things close.

Steelers (-4.5) over Browns
In all of my "Survivor Football" things this week, the Steelers were my pick to win. I like them this year (as I have mentioned), and I'm not such a big fan of the Browns with Charlie Frye at QB, who is basically a lame duck (meaning he's on a very short leash). I don't see that ending well for Cleveland, unless Jamal Lewis is somehow very rejuvenated.

Eagles (-3) over Packers
The Packers are not so invincible as they once were, and I think the Eagles are just clearly the better team here. The Packers will struggle with the running game (especially early in the season), and I don't think Favre will be able to beat a good Eagles defense by himself, especially with Donald Driver a little banged up. I like the Eagles to win by about 2 touchdowns.

Lions (+2.5) over Raiders
This is a tough one to call. I think both teams will be improved from last year. I'll take Detroit, just because I think they have a very good chance to win this one outright.

Jets (+6.5) over Patriots
Richard Seymour is out. Rodney Harrison is out. Who knows about Randy Moss... I think the Patriots are really good, but I think the Jets will hang with them in this game. I still like the Patriots to win, but I think it'll be a fairly close ballgame.

Vikings (-3) over Falcons
Of course I'm taking the Vikings here... this will be a low scoring affair, but I like the Vikings to win by a score of 20-16, or 24-20, or something along those lines. The Vikings can slow down the Falcons rushing game, and I don't think Joey Harrington is good enough to beat teams by himself at this point.

Titans (+6.5) over Jaguars
I'm just not that sold on the Jags at this point. I could definitely see Tennessee winning this game, which makes it hard for me to pick the Jaguars with the spread this large.

Texans (+3) over Chiefs
This win the "Game I really hope isn't being shown on my local TV station" award this week. I just really, really don't like the Chiefs offense this year.

Broncos (-3) over Bills
I know this game is in Buffalo, but I was a little surprised to see the line this low. Denver is a really good, complete team. I've said most of what I've needed to say, but if Cutler progresses like how I think he will, the Broncos are going to be a very tough football team.

Cowboys (-5.5) over Giants
Not big fans of the Giants this year either... in Dallas, I like Romo to have a solid night against the Giants D. I'm not really confident about this one, but I see Dallas winning by about 7.

Ravens (+2.5) over Bengals
I kind of see this one as like a Pick'Em... and in that case, I go with the underdog. But really, I'm just not as high on Cincy as others are. They still have lots of personnel (ie character and chemistry) problems, and the defense isn't exactly rock solid.

49ers (-3) over Cardinals
I do think a lot of people are overrating the Niners a little bit, but I like them to win this game at home. I mean, it's the Cardinals!

What picks of yours are different from mine?