Friday, 15 December 2006

NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 14

Well, in case you noticed I've been absent here for the past couple days, due mainly to having finals to take and all that stuff. But, I'm happy to report that I'm back, finals are over, and I'm on Christmas vacation. I think that's something we can all be happy about. But enough talking, let's get to the picks.

Cowboys (-3.5) over Falcons
How quickly those bandwagons go. One bad game by Tony Romo and we haven't heard much talk about him. A couple of wins by the Falcons in a row and everyone thinks Michael Vick is good again. Well, almost everyone.

Dolphins (+1) over Bills
It's the second half of the season, which means the Dolphins are pretty much unbeatable. JP Losman is finally looking like an actual NFL Quarterback, but the Dolphins are looking like a tough out right now. Jason Taylor has been the best defensive player in the NFL this year, and Joey Harrington is doing just enough to win games. I'll take Miami here.

Saints (-9.5) over Redskins
I just can't get the picture out of my mind of the Saints just pulverizing the Cowboys defense last week. Brees is playing unbelievably well, Deuce is running well, Reggie Bush is a weapon no matter how he's used, and the receivers are making plays. This is the best offense in the NFL right now, and they are fun to watch.

Panthers (+2.5) over Steelers
This just sorta seems like the way things go for the Panthers. Three straight losses where they have not looked good at all leaving them on the edge of playoff contention, it just makes sense in the NFL today that they should beat a Pittsburgh team that is playing pretty well lately. Certainly they have the talent to do it, at least.

Bears (+13.5) over Bucs
Bears should win easily but this line is just too big for me. Sorry, I'll take the Bucs to cover.

Vikings (-3.5) over Jets
Mostly a homer pick. I do think the Vikings will win, but I would be a lot more confident if Brad Johnson wasn't starting. I'm not sure Chad Pennington is good enough to carry the offense, which is what QBs have to do against the Vikings, because their run defense is historically good, led by Pat Williams, who better get a Pro Bowl spot this year. He's an absolute beast.

Browns (+11.5) over Ravens
See the Bears description. Just a little too big of a spread for me in a League where a lot of funny things have happened this year.

Titans (+3.5) over Jaguars
For all of the Jags impressive victories, they've also lost twice to Houston and once to Tennessee this year. I've definitely become a Vince Young believer, and I think that with this game in Tennessee the Titans will pull it out. That's just how the Jags season has gone this year.

Texans (+11) over Patriots
Much like the Bears and Ravens game, this spread is a little big for me. Especially since New England is coming off of a game in which they lost 21-0.

Lions (+5) over Green Bay
Even if no one else will say it, I will... it's not just the rest of the offense that's the problem in Green Bay, Brett Favre plays a pretty big part in it as well. Uncatchable passes, poor decisions, etc. Not that they have anywhere better than him right now that should be playing because they definitely don't, but Favre is a shell of his former self at this point.

Broncos (-3) over Cardinals
Interesting battle of the rookie QBs, though I think this one is decided by the fact that Denver's defense is better than the Cardinals defense. But man, did you ever think that after the start the Broncos had this year, especially defensively, that they'd be 7-6 and on the outside looking in as far as the playoffs are concerned? I certainly didn't, but again, it's the NFL, so I should probably just expect the unexpected now. Which I guess means I should be picking the Cards instead of the Broncos. Oh well.

Rams (+2.5) over Raiders
Oakland is the favorite? OAKLAND? They're 2-11, have lost 6 straight, and haven't scored more than 14 points during that losing streak. And they're the favorite? Certainly the Rams are no world-beaters, but I'm not taking the Raiders to beat the spread in a game that they're favored to win. No sir.

Eagles (+5.5) over Giants
I can see it now... Garcia continues his strong play, gets rewarded with a multi-year deal from some team looking for that veteran influence at QB, then he sucks again. It's almost too predictable.

Chiefs (+8.5) over Chargers
As awesome as the Chargers look at times, they can also be pretty inconsistent. And with the Chiefs loss last week their backs are firmly against the wall. Which isn't a good reason to pick a team to beat the spread, but that's all I got right now.

Colts (-3) over Bengals
Honestly, I have no idea what to say about this that everyone doesn't already know. It should be very high scoring and very entertaining. I'll take the home team, even if their run defense is incredibly bad.

Last Week: 7-7
Season: 86-95-8