Thursday, 4 October 2007

NFL Picks Against the Spread 2007: Week 5

The drive to .500 continues!

Cardinals (-3.5) over Rams
I have some grave doubts about how a dual QB system will work in the long-term, but for the short-term the Cardinals are clearly a better team for it. Give Kurt Warner time and he's still in the top half of QBs in the NFL. Who'da thunk it?

49ers (+3.5) over Ravens
Sorry, just not sold on this Ravens team. Also, just in case it hasn't been said, I really think they should be starting Kyle Boller instead of McNair, even when McNair is completely healthy. It's time.

Chargers (+1.5) over Broncos
A team as talented as the Chargers can't start the season 1-4, right? Right? Not even Norv Turner is this bad. At least that's what I'm telling myself.

Packers (-3) over Bears
The Bears have about half their defense out with injuries, their running game is ineffective, and there are rumors that they might be thinking about switching to their 3rd QB sometime in the relatively near future. Other than that, everything is great for the Bears.

Dolphins (+5.5) over Texans
Just a feeling. I don't like the Texans with the spread this large.

Bucs (+10) over Colts
There's a chance any or all of Bob Sanders, Marvin Harrison, and Joseph Addai could be missing this game due to injury. Even if they're not, the Bucs have a very solid defense, and an efficient offense. I don't think they'll be beating the Colts, but I think they can keep this a competitive game.

Chiefs (+2) over Jaguars
Coming into the year, I assumed the Chiefs would be a terrible team. Now I'm not so sure they can't be competitive in a suddenly mediocre AFC West. Damon Huard isn't terrible, and he has two really good targets in Tony Gonzalez and Dwayne Bowe (who has looked awesome). Larry Johnson's numbers are down, but this is in part due to the fact that they've played some teams that are good against the run. Don't sleep on the Chiefs.

Patriots (-16.5) over Browns
I'm still picking the Patriots to cover every week until they prove that this is not smart. I mean seriously, they've been KILLING teams.

Saints (-3) over Panthers
The Saints in a must-win game early in the year. David Carr is starting for the Panthers. Yes, I'll take New Orleans.

Giants (-3.5) over Jets
Honestly, I don't have the slightest clue. I'm not even going to try and pretend I do.

Seahawks (+5.5) over Steelers
I've been a big fan of the Steelers all year, but I think the Seahawks are a pretty decent team as well. I know it's in Pittsburgh, but the spread seems a little high.

Falcons (+8.5) over Titans
Don't look now, but I'm not so sure the Falcons are that bad of a football team. Joey Harrington can be a decent QB (really), and they have a solid RB duo to provide some offense balance. I know Andre Johnson was hurt, but it was an impressive win last week against Houston. I like them to cover against the Titans, who are a solid but I think a wee bit overrated.

Lions (+3.5) over Redskins
The Lions impressed me last week. I know I bashed the Bears a little in here, and they are banged up defensively, but 24 4th quarter points? That's impressive. That said, I am starting Jason Campbell in multiple fantasy leagues this week... that Lions secondary is awful.

Cowboys (-10) over Bills
No one has stopped the Cowboys yet. The spread and the fact that it's in Buffalo makes me a bit weary, but I'll stick with Dallas here.

What are your picks? Or where do you differ from me?