Thursday, 18 October 2007

NFL Picks Against the Spread 2007: Week 7

The drive for .500 continues! I actually had a really solid week last week, so hopefully I can continue with that momentum.

Ravens (-3) over Bills
I'm not huge on the Ravens, but the Bills have not been all that impressive. Trent Edwards will get the start again, and rookie QBs generally don't fare too well against good defenses.

Jets (+6.5) over Bengals
The Bungles are a bit of a mess right now... with Chad Pennington playing for his job, I think they'll have enough to cover.

Vikings (+9.5) over Cowboys
Of course I'm taking the Vikings here... That Adrian Peterson guy is pretty good. The Vikings offense has started to turn a little bit, as the passing game looked solid last week (even if the numbers don't exactly bear it out).

Bucs (+2) over Lions
The last time we saw the Lions, they got absolutely walloped by the Redskins... now they're 2 point favorites against Tampa? Nah don't like that. The Bucs are solid defensively, and they take care of the ball offensively. That's half the battle.

Patriots (-16.5) over Dolphins
As I have said in previous weeks, I am going to keep taking the Patriots until they prove that I shouldn't. They have some talent.

Saints (-9) over Falcons
The Falcons suck, but the Saints had one big week and all of a sudden they're 9 point favorites? Hmmm. For that reason I tried talking myself into taking the Falcons and the points, but I just can't. Word is that Byron Leftwich will be starting this week... I'm sorry, but I just can't see that ending well.

Giants (-9) over 49ers
The Giants have looked extremely potent offensively this year, while the Niners have looked extremely terrible offensively, especially with Trent Dilfer at the helm. The Giants look like the easy choice, but we'll see.

Chiefs (+2.5) over Raiders
Still not sold on the Raiders because I'm not sure that they can actually pass the ball. They are 29th in the NFL in passing YPG. Larry Johnson appears to be getting on track more (though maybe that was just because they played the Bengals?)... I'll take the Chiefs.

Bears (+5.5) over Eagles
I'm really not sure what to think here... two teams that seem to have underachieved a bit (though the Bears have been badly hurt by some injuries defensively). I'll take the Bears here, but I'm not real confident.

Steelers (-3.5) over Broncos
The Broncos have been a bit of a trainwreck, and Javon Walker will again be out. I see them struggling to move the ball consistently against a stout Pittsburgh defense.

Rams (+8.5) over Seahawks
Bulger's back, which should help out the Rams offense some. Of course, it really can't get any worse. Plus, the Seahawks haven't looked all that impressive thus far. I'll take the Rams to cover.

Texans (+1.5) over Titans
I have some concerns about Vince Young... if he's not fully healthy and full able to use his running abilities, he is simply not that good right now as a pocket passer. The Titans will have lots of problems running the football, but I'll take them here.

Redskins (-8.5) over Cardinals
Tim Rattay is the Cardinals QB. I rest my case.

Colts (-3) over Jaguars
This is a tough one because it is in Jacksonville and because the Jags typically play the Colts better than anyone else (with the Patriots being the obvious exception)... still, I like the Colts to win, and 3 points is too little of a spread to take the Jags.

Last Week: 8-3-2
Season: 41-41-7