Friday, 13 October 2006

NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 6

Back for another week of the greatly anticipated, never disapponting NFL picks against the spread! I don't want to keep you all waiting another word, so here we go.

Seahawks (-3) over Rams - The Rams are playing well, Shaun Alexander is out, and the Rams are at home... Rams in a route, right? Let's just say I'm not quite sold on St. Louis yet. Their wins are against Denver, @ Arizona, Detroit, @Green Bay, and their loss came against San Fran. Not exactly an incredible body of work there. Plus, they are still having problems putting the ball in the endzone when they get in the red zone. Matt Hasselbeck has to be star in this offense with Alexander out, and I think he'll have a big week.

Redskins (-10.5) over Titans - Let's just get one thing straight... I have no idea why that Colts/Titans game was that close. Indy at home against a Vince Young-led Tennessee Titans. By all means, that game should have been a blowout. But I suppose that's why they play the game. Regardless, I still think the Titans aren't very good, and the Redskins should be getting better and better with Al Saunder's offense every week.

Bills (-1.5) over Lions - Coming into the year I thought the Lions would be able to challenge for .500 and the Bills would suck... I've done a 180. Last week against the Bears notwithstanding, the Bills have shown to have a good running game, solid defense, and on rare occasions, JP Losman can do some things. Meanwhile for the Lions, the defense sucks, and the offense isn't all that great right now. Mike Martz-Ball is in full effect... meaning they pass the ball A LOT. Only problem is that their only playmaker on offense is Roy Williams, who will play but might be slowed by a back injury. I like the Bills to keep Detroit out of the win column.

Bucs (+5) over Bengals - Bruce Gradkowksi was impressive last week, and if he can be average, this Bucs team is not THAT bad. Heck, they were in the playoffs last year. The defense is older but still talented, and if they can get Cadillac going, he's a very solid back. Plus, I have the image of the Bengals getting shellacked by the Pats in my head. I think Cincy will probably win, but I'll take Tampa to cover.

Panthers (+3) over Ravens - Most of what I have read about Steve McNair with the Ravens so far has been positive, but I'm not sure why. I thought he was a great pickup for Baltimore, but he looked washed up. He's not very mobile anymore, he doesn't have great arm strength, and he simply hasn't been accurate. His QB rating is 67.0, and he's got a measly 5.5 YPA. They have a great offense, but the offense is led by two past-their-prime players in the backfield. I don't see this ending well.

Eagles (-3) over Saints - Finally, a Reggie Bush TD! Seriously, anyone notice Reggie Bush is leading the NFL in receptions right now. This man is just ridiculous. And don't think now, but Deuce is putting up very good numbers running the ball. Just a great, versatile 1-2 combo. However, McNabb is just playing too well right now. The Saints have obviously been very impressive so far, but I don't think they're on the Eagles level at this point.

Texans (+10.5) over Cowboys - First off, let me get something off my chest... DREW BLEDSOE SUCKS. He makes terrible decisions, takes terrible sacks, and that's not really a good combo. Wasn't the end of last week's game vintage Bledsoe? He held on to the ball forever, takes a huge sack, and gets put in an impossible situation. Now, he did get bailed out by the defense, so he's got another chance. And what does he do? Throws a TD to the Eagles. Vintage Bledsoe. That said, I think the Cowboys defense is too good to let them lose to Houston, but I'll take the Texans to cover.

Giants (+3) over Falcons - The terribly difficult opening schedule for the Giants continue, as they head to Atlanta. They've been a little inconsistent this year, a lot of that which can be tied to Eli Manning. But, they played very good defense shutting down the Skins this week, and with Jerrious Norwood possibly a little limited for Atlanta this week, I think the defense can play well enough again for the Giants to win this game.

Jets (-2.5) over Dolphins - Was there a more surprising score last week than Jacksonville beating NY 41-0? Granted, the Jags are more talented, but the Jets had been very competitive against solid teams all year. Really a weird game. Joey Harrington brings the Dolphins into New York this week, and I just have a tough time picking Harrington. All those years in Detroit, and he was still making awful, awful decisions... I think this will be a tight game, but ultimately the Jets will win after Harrington throws a bad pick in the 4th quarter. That's my prediction.

Chargers (-10) over 49ers - An amazing thing happened last week that you may have missed... Marty actually let Philip Rivers, you know, throw the ball against Pittsburgh, and amazingly, things turned out well. That can only be a good thing for San Diego. If Marty continues to get at least somewhat of a good balance run/pass, then the Chargers have the talent for a Super Bowl run. Rivers is talented, and LT/Turner is a great combo in the backfield. In other words, 49ers should have no shot this week... but you just never know with Marty.

Steelers (-7) over Chiefs - Is this the week the Steelers start in any way resembling the team they were last year? Damon Huard's been a nice story, but this Pittsburgh defense is too good to let him beat them, right? Roethlisberger can't continue to play this badly, can he? Well, I'm banking on that here with a pick of Pittsburgh, but I'll admit I'm not real confident about it.

Broncos (-14.5) over Raiders - Doesn't NBC get to pick what game they want in the Sunday night time slot? Or is that only later in the season? Please tell me it's just later in the season and this game was chosen well in advance... because it could be awful. The Raiders suck badly, and Denver's defense is dominant. To put it in perspective... Denver is averaging just over 12 points per game this year - and they're favored by 14.5. Uh yeah, this should be a real awesome game to watch.

Bears (-10.5) over Cardinals - The Bears are looking simply unstoppable. Rex Grossman is playing very well and getting the big play. The defense is the best in the NFL. The average score of Bears games this year is something like 31-7. Oh yeah, and the Cardinals are starting a rookie QB, their best WR is hurt, and their O-Line is dreadful... I'm quite surprised the line isn't higher.

Hopefully I can rebound from a poor week last week.

Last Week: 4-7-3
Season: 37-32-5