Sunday, 1 April 2007

Title Game Prediction

In all honesty, this Tournament hasn't really been as exciting as I was hoping for. It was a great regular season, and there have been great matchups and great games, but a lot of the Tourney hasn't quite lived up to the hype.

The Final Four was no exception there. The matchups looked like they would be fantastic, but the games weren't that good. This title game is the last chance to save us.

It's a matchup between two really good and really talented teams... Florida is older and more experienced, while Ohio St. may have more physical talent. They played earlier and the game was tied at 40 with 17 minutes left (though Florida ran away with it from there), but the Buckeyes are a lot better now than they were back then.

Still, I kinda feel like this game will reflect the rest of the Tournament... the potential to be great, but it won't quite live up to the hype. The Sports Pulse is picking Florida by 15, The Sports Flow is picking Florida, and I've got them as well. And unfortunately, I think the margin of victory will be around double digits.

My reasons:

- Corey Brewer - He shut down Arron Afflalo (when he was in the game) and will be able to do the same to Ron Lewis. The 6'4'' Lewis won't be able to many shots up over the long-armed Brewer. Also, another interesting matchup would be if Donovan decides to put Brewer on Conley for stretches... I'm not sure how well this would work, but Brewer might be able to bother Conley with his length.

- There's been some talk about Mike Conley being the best freshman PG ever... but hold on a minute. I love the guy and I think he's great, but let's not forget, he doesn't really have a jumpshot. I mean, he's still wildly effective without it, but he's better as a freshman than Magic Johnson was? Than Kenny Anderson was? His game is predicated on getting in the lane (scoring wise), and that could be tough against a great defensive duo in Noah and Horford, not to mention Brewer flying in from the wing.

- Oden will be under constant pressure defensively. Hey, Oden's great, but he's not exactly been able to avoid foul trouble all the time. With Joakim Noah, Al Horford, and Chris Richard down low for the Gators, Oden should be under constant pressure. He has to avoid the cheap fouls (the moving screen, the charge, etc) in this ballgame, and frankly, I'm not sure that he'll do it.

Add it all up, and I've got the Gators winning fairly handily. Hopefully I'm wrong and we can get a great game.

Who do you have winning it?